26/10/2022
Two Methods for Trading News
https://www.wikifx.com/en/newsdetail/202210258064796069.html?source=zme3
Abstract:There is no one best way to trade the news. When news breaks, the price often jumps in one way or reacts slowly to the information as traders assess the result in comparison to market expectations.
There is no one best way to trade the news.
When news breaks, the price often jumps in one way or reacts slowly to the information as traders assess the result in comparison to market expectations.
With this knowledge, there are two primary ways to trade the news:
1) Having a bias in one way
b) Possessing an asymmetric bias
Orientational Bias
When you have a directional bias, you anticipate that the market will move in a particular way when the news is announced.
Knowing what news stories will impact the market is important when looking for a trade opportunity in a certain direction.
Actual vs. Consensus Number
Analysts will make some sort of prediction about the figures that will be announced days or even weeks before a news item is published.
This number will vary depending on the analyst, as we discussed in a previous session, but there will typically be one that the vast majority of them agree on.
A consensus number is this one.
The number that is provided when a news story is made public is referred to as the real number.
“Buy the rumor, sell on the news,” they say.
This idiom is frequently heard while talking about the forex market since it frequently seems as when a news report is out, the movement doesn't correspond to what the report would have you believe.
Let's take the case where it is anticipated that the unemployment rate in the US will rise. Consider a scenario in which the consensus for the forthcoming report is 9.0% and the unemployment rate was 8.8% in the previous month.
A consensus of 9.0% indicates that major market participants anticipate a worse U.S. economy, which would lead to a lower dollar.
Big market participants won't wait until the report is actually out to start acting and taking a position as a result of this expectation.