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A deal has been reached to end the US government shutdown. While legislation has passed the Senate, it still needs to p...
11/11/2025

A deal has been reached to end the US government shutdown. While legislation has passed the Senate, it still needs to pass the House, and then be signed into law. Consequently, it will still take the government about 48 hours to fully re-open.

We will be getting government data again, although expect November data releases to be delayed. Past CPI data will not be collected and its unclear how jobs data covering the shutdown will be released.

HUGE layoff announcement today from Amazon and UPS. Amazon announced 14k jobs will be eliminated. This may affect up to...
10/28/2025

HUGE layoff announcement today from Amazon and UPS. Amazon announced 14k jobs will be eliminated. This may affect up to 30,000 corporate jobs at Amazon and is their largest round of layoffs since announcing 27k job cuts in 2022. These jobs are white collar specific.

UPS announced 48k job cuts today. Of those 14k were management positions adn 34k jobs in operations. Time to get defensive

Inflation did increase month over moth, but less than expected. That brings the 12 month inflation rate to 3.0% rather t...
10/24/2025

Inflation did increase month over moth, but less than expected. That brings the 12 month inflation rate to 3.0% rather than the expected 3.1%. This is always positive news and for intents and purposes ensures that the FED will implement a rate cut at the FOMC meeting next week

We have a delayed September CPI report slated for release tomorrow at 8:30AM EST. Analysts are expecting monthly inflat...
10/24/2025

We have a delayed September CPI report slated for release tomorrow at 8:30AM EST. Analysts are expecting monthly inflation to increase by 0.4% and 12 month inflation at 3.1% with higher food inflation but lower energy costs.

This the only piece of government economic data that will be released during the government shutdown so everyone is waiting for this report. Are you expect headline inflation to be higher than 3%?

Trump has announced that the US and Japan have reached a trade deal. All imported Japanese goods, including autos, will...
07/24/2025

Trump has announced that the US and Japan have reached a trade deal. All imported Japanese goods, including autos, will be subject to a 15% tariff.

Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with Trump saying The U.S. will receive 90% of the profits from the investments, without providing further details.

Trump has talked about opening the Japanese market to American companies, but unfortunately those details have yet to emerge

A WSJ investigation finds that after promised to hold the line on prices, they actually raised price on "Everyday Ess...
07/21/2025

A WSJ investigation finds that after promised to hold the line on prices, they actually raised price on "Everyday Essentials," which make up 1/3 of Amazon sales had significant price increases as you can see from the graphic. In contrast, has actually lowered prices on the same items by approx 2%.
If you are looking for a deal is a much better option that

The University of Michigan said Friday that its consumer sentiment index rose slightly to 61.8 in preliminary July numbe...
07/18/2025

The University of Michigan said Friday that its consumer sentiment index rose slightly to 61.8 in preliminary July numbers, from 60.7 in June.

Inflation expectations fell, with survey respondents predicting 4.4% price increases over the next year. Last month, respondents expected 5% inflation. Inflation expectations are still much higher than in January, when respondents expected prices to rise 3.3%

Rumors have been swirling that Trump is planning on replacing Powell and was going to use FED HQ renovations to remove h...
07/16/2025

Rumors have been swirling that Trump is planning on replacing Powell and was going to use FED HQ renovations to remove him with cause.

Now Trump says he does not plan on replacing Powell and markets popped but onlt after a closed door meeting with Republican lawmakers. The removal of Powell and compromising FED independence would be catastrophic. Do you think Trump will move forward with Powell's removal?

Inflation increased to 2.7% in June, with core inflation increasing 2.9%. Both figures were slightly higher than antici...
07/15/2025

Inflation increased to 2.7% in June, with core inflation increasing 2.9%. Both figures were slightly higher than anticipated by analysts but markets are up.

The increase in June inflation is the first sign that the Trump tariffs are working their way through the economy. From here, expect inflation to continue to rise.

This report alone will not change the FED's outlook on rate cuts but July's CPI report will now be more significant

Trump sends letters to Japan and South Korea informing them of their new 25% tariffs for all US imports from their count...
07/07/2025

Trump sends letters to Japan and South Korea informing them of their new 25% tariffs for all US imports from their countries.

Japan has particularly been a source of frustration for Trump as Japan and Trump are deadlocked on auto exports. No official response yet from Japan or South Korea

Stocks are up for a 3rd consecutive day after Monday's big reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Yeste...
05/14/2025

Stocks are up for a 3rd consecutive day after Monday's big reduction in tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. Yesterday's inflation numbers only added to the good news. Uncertainty about what the where Chinese tariffs will end up remain

Trump and British PM Keir Starmer announce a trade agreement. Major takeaways:- 10% tariffs on all UK goods (unchanged...
05/08/2025

Trump and British PM Keir Starmer announce a trade agreement. Major takeaways:

- 10% tariffs on all UK goods (unchanged)
- 25% tariffs on aluminum (unchanged)
- 10% tariffs on British autos, down from 25%
- No tariff on steel, down from 25%

The US actually has a trade DEFICIT with the UK, so this is an interesting barometer for how Trump all approach these tariffs. Even for decades old allies who buy more American goods than we buy from them, tariffs remain in place

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