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23/05/2025

…very often, the data we do not get or see, tells more about what to do then the information we do have.

During WWII, the military analyzed the bullet holes on returning fighter planes to determine where to add more armor. The red dots in the image show where the planes that made it back were most commonly hit.
Initially, the military considered reinforcing the areas with the most bullet holes — the wings, tail, and outer fuselage. But statistician Abraham Wald pointed out a critical insight:
These are the planes that survived. The hits they sustained were not fatal.
Wald argued that the areas with few or no bullet holes — like the engine and cockpit — were the critical weak points. Planes hit in those areas didn’t return, so those missing data points were crucial.
This story teaches us survivorship bias — the logical error of focusing only on the people or things that survived a process while overlooking those that didn’t, often leading to false conclusions.
It's a classic case in statistics and decision-making, still taught widely today.
Ctto..

22/05/2025

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