01/16/2017
Good Afternoon everyone. As you are aware, we’ve been following the models very closely regarding the expected freezing rain that will begin to affect the region this evening and through much of Tuesday into Wednesday morning – depending on your location. Environment Canada has issued freezing rain warnings and we’ll likely see those expand as the day progresses.
The latest model guidance continues to show several hours of freezing rain impacting many areas of Southern Ontario, some less and some more than others.
As of now, we expect the cold air in eastern Ontario and higher elevations through central Ontario to remain positioned long enough to support ice accretion in the order of 4mm to 6mm. Localized locations could potentially see as much as 12mm of ice accretion.
With the cold staying in place and winds expected to increase with the system, we do expect impacts such as localized power outages, falling branches and slippery travel conditions for both those driving and walking.
The hardest hit communities in areas such as Orangeville, Guelph to Kitchener-Waterloo as well as Peterborough to Smiths Falls and potentially southern portions of the Ottawa Valley, including Haliburton and Bancroft, are most at risk for prolonged freezing rain with ice accretion between 6mm and, potentially, 12mm.
For areas along the shorelines of the Great Lakes, we expect to see less accretion with a potential of a trace to 6mm. This area also includes portions of the southwest towards St Thomas, Sarnia and Windsor along with both the Niagara and Bruce Peninsulas.
Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday in the southwest and the GTA with portions of central and eastern Ontario seeing temperatures moderate Wednesday which will help alleviate some of the impacts from the freezing rain.
We’ll continue to go over the latest model guidance and update with any necessary changes regarding the impacts from this system.
More details asap.
-OBW (Kevin R., Brennen P.)
