08/20/2026
Canada's mortgage market looks fine. On paper. Read here: https://designrr.page/?id=674175&token=1987432054&h=3596
The national delinquency rate is low. Banks are still underwriting conservatively. Mortgage credit is growing at a measured pace. If you only read the headline number, you'd assume the system is shrugging off higher rates without much trouble.
Here's what that headline number is quietly hiding: severe delinquencies are climbing faster than the average suggests. Insolvencies just hit their highest level since 2009. And the pain isn't spread evenly — it's concentrated. Ontario, and the GTA specifically, is carrying a disproportionate share of it. So is the wave of over a million mortgages renewing this year at rates well above what people locked in back in 2020 and 2021.
I put together a report on what's actually happening underneath the calm national number — where the renewal wave is hitting hardest, which borrowers are most exposed, what the private lending market is quietly signaling, and where this likely goes from here.