20/04/2026
TSMC just printed its strongest Q1 on record. Revenue up 35% to $35.7B. 2nm capacity booked through 2028. CoWoS packaging on track to quadruple by year end. $56B of capex pencilled in for 2026.
The obvious read: more fabs, more Nvidia, more Apple, same story with bigger numbers.
Look underneath and the story changes. If every serious AI buyer in the world already has a reservation through 2028, the bottleneck on the next wave of AI capacity is no longer the fab. It is the equipment that builds the fab. ASML, Applied Materials, KLA, and Lam Research become the vendors who decide how fast the whole industry can grow. Intel and Samsung get a quiet re-rating too, because if equipment is the constraint, second-tier fabs can spend their way toward parity.
Go one layer deeper. Taiwan imports over 95% of its energy. Every chip in this supply chain runs on a grid that runs on tankers. A Strait of Hormuz disruption is not just a foreign-policy story. It is an AI-scaling story.
The AI capital stack has models at the top and electrons at the bottom. The further down you go, the more power each layer has over the one above it.
The binding constraint on AI is not the model anymore.
One fab. One island. One strait.
Which layer are you watching?
ai breaks down the AI stack one layer at a time. Follow for the next one.