05/01/2021
👉 Why it is impossible to estimate your MVP? 🤯
Doskonały tweet prezentujący trudy estymacji...
➡️ It would appear that we have collectively learned very little on / over the last years, so I am going to repost this thread from 2015 verbatim. 1/13
In his book/blog posts explains why it is impossible to estimate your MVP. You should read him carefully. 2/12
Getting to an MVP is a series of experiments. It is R&D, not manufacturing. You cannot predict the answer in advance. 3/12
Furthermore, humans are really bad at estimating due to cognitive bias. 4/12
Already known for decades, from 1991 "Cognitive biases in the estimation of project completion time" https://scholarship.rice.edu/handle/1911/16574… 5/12
This does not mean you should ignore planning. But there is a huge difference between a plan and an estimate. 6/12
A plan says "First we do A, then B, then C". An estimate says "Doing A will take X, B will take Y, and C will take Z" 7/12
Startups you should not be asking "how much and how long?". Ask "how would you advise we spend X dollars?" 8/12
Investors you should not be asking "how much and how long?". Ask "how would you spend X dollars?" 9/12
Consultancies don't answer "how much and how long?". Ask "What is X, so we can give you good advice on how to use it?" 10/12
This is how you align the interests of companies, investors, and consultancies. And have a much better chance of success. 11/12
Treat your R&D like a zero-sum game and you will end up with zero. Instead, find people you trust, and work together. 12/end
Link do oryginału:
https://twitter.com/deadprogram/status/1346358291719462914?s=20
“It would appear that we have collectively learned very little on / over the last years, so I am going to repost this thread from 2015 verbatim. 1/13 https://t.co/S62dezhZLO”
