AriaQuantum

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04/09/2026

Colours – 4 September 2026

Good morning,

Overnight, US equities rallied after Fed Governor Waller said that he would be inclined to hold rates steady if upcoming data confirms that inflationary pressures are easing, though he left the door open for a hike should inflation refuse to cooperate. Futures market priced Sept hike down to roughly 50% from over 63% before. S&P up 1.1%, Nasdaq up 1.4% and Dow up 1.2%. Brent settled down 0.1%to $95.52.

Middle East tensions continue to show no signs of resolution. JD Vance declined to call the illegal war with Iran a war, insisting that major combat operations have ended even as renewed fighting flared this week. He offered no timeline for an end to the illegal war and ruled out negotiations as long as Iran continues to target commercial shipping. The war has now entered its 7th month. South Korea is reportedly preparing a military deployment to the Hormuz.

US ISM Service PMI came in hot at 55.4 vs 54.2 expected, with new orders surging to 60.9. But prices paid jumped to 72.6, the highest since Oct 2022, reinforcing the case that inflation is not going away quietly. US trade deficit widened sharply by 24.4% to $88.6b, driven by surging imports of capital goods that hit a record $140.3b, much of it related to semiconductor and computing equipment for AI buildouts.

US Treasuries higher overnight. UST 2 year yield down 3 basis points to 4.34%, UST 10 year yield down 1 basis point to 4.77% and UST 30 year yield down 1 basis point to 5.25%. VIX at 14 handle.

In FX, USD weakened on Waller’s comments. DXY down 0.6%. JPY gained 1.2% as JGB traded lower off the highs. EUR up 0.4%. Gold up 1.8% and Silver up 2.5%. Sees range trade ahead.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1560/1.1590 | 1.1650/1.1690
GBPUSD - 1.3430/1.3470 | 1.3550/1.3590
USDJPY - 154.40/155.30 | 157.60/158.90
XAUUSD - 4240/4393 | 4565/4643
DXY - 98.50/98.80 | 99.30/99.60

Feels that the market is at an inflection point. Global yields, though came off the highs over the past 2 days, are at decades high. USD is falling and we are seeing debasement trades. And feels that market losing confidence in the US. The Sept FOMC is crucial for Warsh’s credibility and we should be heading for higher vol as we go into the meeting. For today, we have the highlight of the week - US Non Farm Payrolls, consensus 56k with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

03/09/2026

Colours – 3 September 2026

Good morning,

Wall Street bounced overnight, snapping a 3 days losing streak. S&P and Nasdaq up 0.5%, Dow up 0.6%. The bounce was shallow and unconvincing, more of bargain hunting in beaten down corners of the market rather than any fundamental shift in the risk outlook. Dell surged nearly 16% after raising its profit and revenue forecast. Breadth was tepid with volume running below the 20 days average. RBNZ and BOC kept rates unchanged, as expected. Brent settled up 1% at $95.55.

Situation in the Middle East remains unchanged. The conflict has been dragging on since “Operation Epic Fury” more than 6 months ago and US has not achieved any of its stated objectives. Reuters reported that Vance, Rubio and senior White House aides are pushing Di**it Trump to keep the war contained until the midterms and will consider ramping up military action afterward. Only 31% of Americans approve of the war. Trump’s approval is now at 33%.

On the economic data front, ADP employment report showed just 38k private sector jobs added vs 47k expected. However, annual pay accelerated to 4.7% YoY. This underscores a labour market that is cooling but wage growth remains sticky.

US Treasuries have some reprises as yield fell. UST 2 year yield down 3 basis points to 4.37%, UST 10 year yield down 2 basis points to 4.78% and UST 30 year yield down 1 basis point to 5.26%. VIX at 15 handle.

In FX, USD weakened slightly with DXY down 0.1%. JPY gained 0.9% in a sudden spike last night which some rumoured to be BOJ checking rates and some said it is due to algorithmic traders short squeeze. EUR closed the day relatively unchanged. Gold gained 1.3% and Silver 1.9%. Nothing new to add and trade the range till NFP tomorrow.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1500/1.1540 | 1.1620/1.1650
GBPUSD - 1.3390/1.3430 | 1.3530/1.3560
USDJPY - 158.00/158.20 | 159.60/160.30
XAUUSD - 4231/4297 | 4430/4485
DXY - 99.20/99.40 | 99.90/100.30

Market’s focus will be on Non Farm Payrolls tomorrow, so expect some positioning ahead of that. For toady, we have European Services PMI, US Jobless Claims, Trade Balance and ISM Services PMI. 3 Fed speakers tonight. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

02/09/2026

Colours – 2 September 2026

Good morning,

A risk off start to September as global bond selloff accelerated and the war in Iran just escalated hard. S&P down 0.7%, Nasdaq down 1% and Dow down 0.8%. Decliners outnumbered advancers 2.8 to 1 on Nasdaq. SOX fell 2.1%. Brent settled up 4.6% at $94.65 a barrel.

US launched another round of airstrikes on multiple IRGC targets across Iran including Asaluyeh gas hub and Qeshm Island. IRGC retaliated with heavy ballistic missile attack on the US Marine base in Jordan, claiming to have killed “a large number of US forces”. However, US officials said no casualties based on initial reports. Jordan said its air defence intercepted 10 of 13 ballistic missiles. Di**it Trump on Fox News said “I think an agreement with them isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. We gave them a lot of chances”. Then on his Truth Social said ‘’if Iran retaliates again, there will be very little left of the Islamic Republic of Iran!”. IRGC said the US attacks would “tighten the lock” on the Hormuz. Qalibaf said “If the enemy wants us not to export oil from the Persian Gulf, no one will be able to export oil”. For the first time on record, Iran has gone roughly 7 weeks without shipping meaningful crude exports through the Hormuz. Since the blockade was reimposed, zero Iranian crude have reached China.

At the G20, Bessent pushed hard on China, urging members to raise trade barriers, said Chinese imbalances are “sucking growth from the rest of the world” and noted CNY is hugely undervalued. The joint communique stalled. Germany’s Klingbeil fired back “Uncertainty is poison for economic growth. The tariff conflicts pursued by the US destroy trust.”

US JOLTS Job Openings showed job market churn slowing, came in 7.27m vs 7.33 expected. US ISM manufacturing losing momentum, came in at 54.6 vs 55.2 expected. ISM Manufacturing Prices came in higher at 71.1 vs 70.5. So we have a lower employment and manufacturing number but higher prices - classic signs of stagflation.

Global bond rout continues as JGB 10 year hit 3% for the 1st time since 1996. Germany 10 year Bunds at 3.35%, highest since 2011. UK 10 year Gilts at 5.25%, highest since 2008. US Treasuries continue the decline. UST 2 year yield up 3 basis points to 4.40%, UST 10 year yield up 5 basis points to 4.80% and UST 30 year yield up 2 basis points to 5.27%, is now just 6 basis points from the August highs that triggered Bessent’s buyback intervention. VIX at 16 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened with DXY up 0.2%. JPY and EUR down 0.3%. Precious metals was under heavy pressure given the higher yield, Gold down 2.4% and Silver 3.9%. Still think to buy USD on dips and range trade ahead.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1500/1.1540 | 1.1620/1.1640
GBPUSD - 1.3430/1.3470 | 1.3550/1.3590
USDJPY - 159.50/159.80 | 160.50/160.90
XAUUSD - 4165/4230 | 4403/4450
DXY - 99.30/99.50 | 100.10/100.50

September rate hike probability is now 68%, up from 40% a week ago. The war has re escalated into direct strikes, bond market is in a synchronised global selloff and oil is back higher. Feels like we are back to 3 or 4 weeks ago when things seems to be heading downhill. In any case, we have RBNZ and BOC rates decision, US ADP Employment Change and Factory Orders today. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

01/09/2026

Colours – 1 September 2026

Good morning,

Risk off as situation in the Middle East escalated. S&P down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.1% and Dow down 0.7%. 9 of 11 S&P sectors ended red. Declining issues outnumbered advancers roughly 2-to-1 on the NYSE. Despite the soft close, all 3 indexes posted monthly gains for August. Oil prices surged sharp escalation in military hostilities between US and Iran. Brent closed up 2.7% at $90.49.

US struck 2 Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday and Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles at 2 US bases in Jordan though they are said be have been intercepted and no significant damage. Then Di**it Trump said “We’re going to hit them hard’’ and posted an AI generated videos of Kharg Island being “blown to smithereens”. No such attack took place. Bessent at the G20 said new secondary sanctions will be unveiled weekly with a focus on banks.

Warsh told G20 finance leaders that the past “global savings glut” is turning into a “global investment surge” and capital is no longer sitting on the sidelines, AI infrastructure and other opportunities are soaking up excess savings and competing directly with Treasuries for funding. That framing matters because it implies higher yields are structural, not cyclical, and that the compression Bessent is trying to engineer through buybacks is fighting a tide of global capital reallocation

US Treasuries sold off again as yield higher across the curve. UST 2 year yield up 1 basis point to 4.37%, UST 10 year yield up 2 basis points to 4.75% and UST 30 year yield up 4 basis points to 5.25%. VIX just under 15 handle.

In FX, USD weakened after Friday’s rally. DXY down 0.3%. JPY gained 0.2% and EUR up 0.3%. Gold closed unchanged after a 1.6% intraday move. Silver up 0.2%. Views unchanged - buy USD on dips and trade the range.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1540/1.1580 | 1.1650/1.1680
GBPUSD - 1.3470/1.3500 | 1.3590/1.3640
USDJPY - 158.90/159.30 | 160.50/160.90
XAUUSD - 4332/4391 | 4556/4661
DXY - 98.80/99.20 | 99.80/100.10

The G20 finance meeting continues today. Else the market should be looking to Friday’s NFP as the main event for the week. For today, we have European Manufacturing PMI and CPI Flash Estimate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings. 1 Fed speaker. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

31/08/2026

Colours – 31 August 2026

Good morning,

US equities closed Friday’s session with modest losses after Warsh delivered what the market deemed as a hawkish read. S&P down 0.3%, Nasdaq down 0.5% and Dow flat. Decliners outnumbered advancers nearly 2 to 1 on Nasdaq, a warning that the rally remains narrow and leadership dependent. But the 3 indices managed to post weekly gains with S&P and Dow up 0.5% and Nasdaq up 0.9%. Oil prices settled lower. Brent down 0.4% at $89.31, down over 5% for the week. But Brent jumped 2.5% back above $90 this morning after US struck 2 Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday.

Friday’s market was dominated by Warsh. He delivered the Jackson Hole keynote in his clearest language yet - “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job, our mandate, and our charge to keep”. He said financial conditions don’t appear restrictive, short term rates are the “predominant tool” and his task force recommendations have “no bearing on decisions we make in the current policy conjuncture”. He also said the Fed needs market signals “as unfiltered as possible”. He described his speech as “a trail map” rather than a commitment. September hike probability jumped to 58% from 35% before the speech. The onus is now on Warsh to deliver a Sept hike unless August jobs and CPI are very soft, otherwise he will lose credibility.

In the Middle East, the stalemate just broke. US struck 2 Iranian launchers on Larak Island on Sunday. It was said that the IRGC had been preparing to launch rockets loaded with sea mines into the Hormuz. Iran retaliated immediately, firing ballistic missiles at 2 US bases in Jordan. Nearly all were intercepted, no significant impact reported so far.

US Treasuries tanked as yields took off after Warsh’s speech. UST 2 year yield up 13 basis points to 4.36%, UST 10 year yield up 5 basis points to 4.73% and UST 30 year yield up 1 basis point to 5.21%. VIX at 14 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened with higher yields. DXY up 0.6%. JPY down 0.5% and EUR down 0.6%. Gold down 3.2% as yields rocketed and Silver down 4.5%. Views unchanged and buy USD on dips, especially after Warsh’s hawkish twist.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1540/1.1580 | 1.1650/1.1680
GBPUSD - 1.3470/1.3500 | 1.3600/1.3640
USDJPY - 158.90/159.30 | 160.50/160.90
XAUUSD - 4336/4390 | 4579/4619
DXY - 98.80/99.30 | 99.80/100.10

The Middle East conflict has re escalated after weeks of fragile calm, so watch this space. And we now have Warsh sounding hawkish. The headline act for this upcoming week is NFP on Friday. Otherwise for this week, we have European Manufacturing PMI and CPI Flash Estimate, US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices and JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday, Aussie GDP, RBNZ Rates Decision, BOC Rates Decisions, US ADP Employment Change and Factory Orders on Wednesday, European Services PMI, US Jobless Claims and ISM Services PMI on Thursday and Non Farm Payrolls on Friday. 4 Fed speakers this week. Stay nimble.��Good luck and have a good day.

28/08/2026

Colours – 28 August 2026

Good morning,

Optimism seems to return in the market as Nvidia propelled tech heavy Nasdaq higher. S&P up 0.7%, Nasdaq gained 1.6% and Dow up 0.2%. But beyond semiconductor euphoria, the broader picture tells a more cautious story. Declining issues actually outnumbered advancers on NYSE and 9 of the S&P 11 sectors finished in the red. Oil prices broke the 3 days losing streak with Brent up 2.1% to $89.70.

In the Middle East. WSJ reported Di**it Trump is not interested in returning to the MOU terms. He said “We don’t want to speak to them. We’re not looking to meet or anything”. White House press secretary Leavitt framed the strategy as 2 phases – “Operation Epic Fury to destroy their military, now Operation Economic Outcast to destroy their economy”. This war has settled into what can only be called a costly stalemate. Though Iran is under economic siege but still holding power and betting that US will enforce sanctions against China and the rest of its trading partners.

US trade deficit blew out to $118.8b in July from $101.4b. This is the widest since the pre ‘’Liberation Day’’. Exports fell 2.9% and capital goods imports jumped 11.3% on the AI buildout.

US Treasuries lower as yields continue rising. UST 2 year yield up 2 basis points to 4.23%, UST 10 year yield up 3 basis points to 4.68% and UST 30 year yield up 3 basis points to 5.20%. VIX at 14 handle.

In FX, another grinding day with nothing much happening. USD, JPY and EUR closed the day flat. Summer months and market probably waiting for Jackson Hole tonight. Gold closed flat while Silver gained 1.6%. Buy USD on dips and trade the range

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1580/1.1620 | 1.1670/1.1700
GBPUSD - 1.3530/1.3570 | 1.3620/1.3650
USDJPY - 158.50/158.90 | 159.70/160.00
XAUUSD - 4468/4526 | 4649/4678
DXY - 98.50/98.90 | 99.30/99.50

The bottom line is that the market is sitting on a knife’s edge. AI earnings are carrying the market to new highs while everything else struggles under the weight of sticky inflation, elevated bond yields and stalemate in the Middle East. Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote this week’s defining event. Market expectation is for a neutral tone. However, if Warsh acknowledges that inflation is a problem, UST gold and equities will sell off and USD strengthens. If he delivers another vague, ‘’forward guidance free’’ performance, the market will continue pricing a grinding move toward a Sept hike. Else for today, we have US Chicago PMI, Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision and Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

27/08/2026

Colours – 27 August 2026

Good morning,

US equities closed slightly lower even with the hotter than expected inflation numbers. S&P closed flat, Nasdaq down 0.1% while Dow down 0.2%. Meta up 1.1%, Apple up 1.1%. However, declining issues outnumbering advancers by 1.4 to 1 on Nasdaq. Volume are below the 20 days average at 14.2b shares reflecting the cautious mood heading into the Nvidia earnings after close. After the bell, Nvidia delivered. Revenue more than doubled to $96.2b, beating the $92.2b estimate. Q3 guidance of $108b came in above the $104.2 estimates. Data centre revenue hit $89b. FY28 revenue growth guided at 70%. Adjusted EPS $2.22 vs $2.10 expected. No China data centre chip sales assumed in the outlook. Shares jumped more than 4% after hours following an initial dip. Oil fell for a 3rd session on Iran/Oman deal hopes. Brent settled down 0.8% to $87.84.

Senior Iranian source claimed Iran and Oman have agreed on territorial shares and revenue while IRGC said no final agreement has been reached. Oman’s FM said he is “hopeful” for a temporary corridor. IRGC then added the critical caveat - the Hormuz will not open unless the US meets the June MOU conditions - end the blockade, pay compensation and remove sanctions. So the talks are real but the conditions are unchanged. For its part, US warned Oman against cooperating with Iran, with Di**it Trump threatening military action against Oman if it interferes. Secretary of State Rubio reportedly told allies that US does not expect to launch new strikes for now, preferring economic pressure.

PCE Price Index came in hot. YoY headline at 3.7% vs 3.6% expected. MoM came in at 0.2% vs 0.1% expected. Core PCE came in as expected at 0.2% MoM, but up from 0.1% a month ago. YoY Core PCE steady at 3.3%. Annual PCE has now been above the Fed’s 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Sept hike probability moved to 40% from 36%. US Q2 GDP came in as expected at 1.5%.

US Treasuries lower on the inflation print. UST 2 year yield up 2 basis points to 4.21%, UST 10 year yield up 3 basis points to 4.65% and UST 30 year yield up 1 basis point to 5.17%. VIX still at 15 handle.

In FX, USD strengthened on the hotter inflation numbers. DXY up 0.3%. JPY closed flat while EUR down 0.2%. Gold down 1.4% and Silver down 0.8%. Views unchanged, buy USD on dips and trade the range.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1600/1.1640 | 1.1690/1.1740
GBPUSD - 1.3530/1.3570 | 1.3630/1.3670
USDJPY - 158.50/158.90 | 159.70/160.10
XAUUSD - 4526/4567 | 4675/4726
DXY - 98.50/98.90 | 99.30/99.50

Jackson Hole on Friday looms. Everything else is a sideshow until the market hears from the Fed Chair. If Warsh commits more forcefully to the 2% target and signals a willingness to act, yields could spike and equities would face headwinds. If he continues to keep quiet about Fed’s direction and let bond market to do the heavy lifting, the confusion persists and the term premium stays elevated. Either way, Sept is shaping up to be a decisive month for risk assets. For today, we have US Trade Balance and Jobless Claims. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

26/08/2026

Colours – 26 August 2026

Good morning,

Markets are pricing peace deal hopes again after Iran said it had restarted talks with Oman on a temporary navigational corridor through the Hormuz and agreed to clear mines. S&P up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 0.7% and Dow up 0.3%. Tech bounced 1% with Nvidia up 2.2% ahead of its earnings report tonight, Meta up 2%, AMD up 4.9% and SOX up 1.4%. 7 of 11 S&P sectors finished higher. Brent is back below $90, down 5.5% to $87.12.

Bessent’s “economic D-Day” sanctions 60 entities but no Chinese banks, no specific country targets and no enforcement timeline. But there will be a “cure period” where the countries can ‘’wind down’’ dealings with Iran. Iran’s economy minister said they are fully prepared. The IRGC vowed heavy blows to US vital interests. But the US is quietly sending personnel back to some Middle East diplomatic missions – suggesting US sees lower near term escalation risk. And then Iranian state TV broadcast a video discussing a plot to assassinate Barron Trump with a $10m bounty. 6 months in, the war produces a new absurdity every day.

The US/Canada trade war deteriorated. Canada hit back with retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20b worth of US imports, matching US latest duties. The counter tariffs take effect 8 September and impose duties of 15%, 25% and 50% across around 700 US products. The numbers look manageable in isolation but the escalation trajectory is concerning.

US Treasuries rallied with UST 10 year yield posted its biggest daily fall in 2 months. UST 2 year yield down 7 basis points to 4.19%, UST 10 year yield down 8 basis points to 4.62% and UST 30 year yield down 7 basis points to 5.16%. VIX at 15 handle.

In FX, another slow and lacklustre day. USD weakened slightly with DXY down 0.1%. JPY and EUR gained 0.1%. Gold surprising only up 0.1% as yields tanked and Silver down 0.4%. Views unchanged and buy USD on dips.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1630/1.1650 | 1.1710/1.1740
GBPUSD - 1.3590/1.3610 | 1.3670/1.3700
USDJPY - 158.30/158.80 | 159.80/160.20
XAUUSD - 4526/4567 | 4721/4790
DXY - 98.30/98.70 | 99.30/99.50

Today is the day. We have US Core PCE Price Index, GDP, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Spending. Nvidia reports after the close. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

25/08/2026

Colours – 25 August 2026

Good morning,

Market mixed overnight. S&P and Nasdaq fell 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, weighed by tech. Dow eked out a 0.3% gain on financials with JPMorgan up 1.4% and Visa up 3%. Nvidia dropped 2.9%, Micron down 5.8% and Broadcom down 2.6% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings. Ford fell 3.3% and GM down 1.1% after Di**it Trump threatened 50% auto tariffs on Canada starting 1 January as trade talks collapsed. Brent fell 2.4% to $91.29.

Treasury Secretary Bessent unveiled “economic D-Day”. He warned countries to cut business ties with Iran or face secondary sanctions and sanctioned 60 individuals, entities and vessels, but stopped short of actually imposing penalties on anyone that matters. No Chinese banks targeted. No timeline for enforcement. No specific countries named. Instead, a “cure period” to give the world time to comply. Iran’s economy minister said they are “fully prepared” and their defence is “no longer so defensive.” The IRGC vowed heavy blows to US vital interests and energy chokepoints. Iran blacklisted 45 tankers it says violated its Hormuz rules and former IRGC chief Rezaei threatened to shut down all oil exports from the entire Gulf.

US Treasuries modestly bid overnight. Bessent confirmed the first expanded buyback starts 10 September and said Treasury will stick to the regular auction schedule. UST 2 year yield unchanged at 4.24%, UST 10 year yield down 4 basis points to 4.70% and UST 30 year yield down 2 basis points to 5.23% respectively. VIX at 15 handle.

In FX, another grinding day. USD strengthened with DXY up 0.2%. JPY and EUR down 0.1%. Gold continues its climb, up 0.9%. Silver down 0.1%. Buy USD on dips and trade the range.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1630/1.1650 | 1.1710/1.1740
GBPUSD - 1.3570/1.3600 | 1.3670/1.3700
USDJPY - 157.70/158.60 | 159.30/159.90
XAUUSD - 4576/4604 | 4714/4793
DXY - 98.10/98.50 | 99.10/99.30

Think market will position for tomorrow with Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - US Core PCE Price Index, US GDP and Nvidia earnings releasing tomorrow. For today, we have BOJ Core CPI, US Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and Richmond Manufacturing Index. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

24/08/2026

Colours – 24 August 2026

Good morning,

US equities bounced on Friday, clawing back some of Thursday’s carnage. S&P and Nasdaq up 0.4% and Dow up 1%. However weekly scorecards reads S&P down 1.4% and Nasdaq dropped 2.1%, snapping 3 weeks winning streaks for both and Dow dropped 0.9% for a 2nd consecutive weekly decline. Brent closed up 0.7% at $94.39.

Been almost 6 months since the illegal war that Di**it Trump said will end in 4 weeks shows no sign of resolution. Di**it Trump threatened economic sanctions on any country providing a lifeline to Iran and Treasury Secretary Bessent said he would provide details at a press conference today, declaring the intent to collapse the regime. Iran’s armed forces chief of staff warned of a devastating military response across land, sea, air, cyberspace and air defence, while Foreign Minister Araqchi dismissed the sanctions threat as a sign of American desperation. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

US Manufacturing PMI came in lower at 53.2 vs 53.9 expected while Services PMI came in better at 56.8 vs 54 expected.

US Treasuries lower again with yield higher across the board. UST 2 year yield up 5 basis points to 4.24%, UST 10 and UST 30 year yield up 3 basis points to 4.74% and 5.25% respectively. VIX back at 15 handle.

In FX, another grinding day as USD closed flat and DXY feels supported. JPY and EUR also closed unchanged. Gold surged 1.9% and Silver up 1.3%. Views unchanged. Bessent’s buyback intervention was supposed to crush long end yields, but USD took the hit thus far. And with UST 30 year yield back near 5.3%, think USD is a buy on dips. Trade the wider range.

Key Levels
EURUSD - 1.1630/1.1650 | 1.1730/1.1770
GBPUSD - 1.3550/1.3600 | 1.3670/1.3700
USDJPY - 157.70/158.60 | 159.30/159.90
XAUUSD - 4496/4539 | 4714/4793
DXY - 98.10/98.50 | 99.10/99.30

Will see the details of Bessent’s “toughest sanctions in history” against Iran later tonight. Believe part of the sanctions will be enforcement against 3rd party buyers including China, which buys more than 80% of Iran’s shipped oil. For the week, we have BOJ Core CPI and US Consumer Confidence tomorrow, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - US Core PCE Price Index, GDP, Durable Goods, Personal Income and Personal Spending on Wednesday, US Jobless Claims Trade Balance on Thursday, Tokyo Core CPI, Chicago PMI, US Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision, Revised Uni of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations on Friday. Warsh speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Nvidia on Wednesday is the most consequential single earnings report of the quarter. Stay nimble.

Good luck and have a good day.

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