DocuTalk

03/12/2026

This morning I am mostly observing the market. The dividend yield of HONDA is creeping toward 5%, which is interesting.

03/07/2026

RINSE / REPEAT

02/15/2026

CONNECTING THE DOTS: NIIC position, US reliance on external capital, Renewable energy hostility from Mr. Trump, And the bond market.

US NIIC position, US reliance on external capital, Renewable energy hostility from Mr. Trump, And the bond market.

02/05/2026

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/solid-state-batteries-introduction-manufacturability-problems-g-m-g-ktr2c

We introduce the questions surrounding solid-state batteries and what is at stake. Solid-state batteries promise an extended range compared to lithium-ion batteries and the absence of liquid electrolytes, which would both reduce the space needed and vastly enhance the safety profile compared to exis

02/03/2026

$PLTR or the story Liquidity instruments disguised as businesses

PLTR is probably the easiest short out there — it’s mostly fluff with a tiny business attached. SHORTING PALANTIR is NOT about PALANTIR (nor is being LONG PALANTIR about PALANTIR).

11/05/2024

THE SEQUENCE

This one is a repost from my previous acccount- deleted & hacked

Where are we in the sequence?

a) First we get a classic private credit bubble (2008)

b) Then the debt is kicked at the sovereign level and losses are socialized

c) Then we get gov bond bubble with monetization

d) Then we start to get an inflationary bubble 2021-?

f) We get a duration shock that cuffs the otherwise we have more banks' bond pukes into BTFP

We get credit downdgrade and the market asks for more yield

g) The gov officials are in denial making it worse

h) Irresponsible spending, demagogues left and right so

i) Inflation Concerns:

fiscal policies lead to excessive means of circulation & government borrowing, it can fuel inflationary pressures.

Ok ✅

some managers get the memo (BillAckman)

j) In response, central banks may be compelled to raise interest rates to control inflation, but there are a bit constrained in raising rates because banks hold a lot of gov debt and start to tell the what to do.

k) The Term premium on the long end of the bonds start to be lost and you start to see an abnormal outperformance of EM bonds. Particularly with China and some SE bonds not LATAM though.

Eventually the curve flattens the "wrong" way and overtime, with continued denial, the rates will go up on the whole curve for as long as the primary deficit projected in the indefinite future is a "taboo". Higher inflation expectations and rates won't help.

Higher interest rates make borrowing costlier for businesses, affecting their profitability and leading to reduced investment and consumer spending over time.

(note the very tepid ISM)

Market Volatility: Uncertainty around fiscal policies and their sustainability would typically create market volatility. Investors start to walk on eggs and hesitant to make long-term investments, leading to increased fluctuations in equity markets.

This normally lead to currency depreciation, so today shorting and is "wrong bet" guys. Because government's excessive gov borrowing uncovered actually means more inflation and hurts the terms of trade in a second round of effect .

( it was Written in August 2023 👇) No PM position right now.

A depreciating currency can negatively affect international investors, reducing their appetite for domestic equities (especially the higher flier ones). The ones below "replacement cost of asset" stuff should be ok.

Crowding Out Effect: Competition for funds with private borrowers ("crowding out" effect). Businesses find it more challenging to access credit & invest, potentially hindering economic growth and negatively affecting equity markets. But the "friends of gov" are ok.

What has changed since the 2023?

neither the ISM, nor the ISM price up versus output down 👇,

nor the reaction of the market to the lower of rates leave much doubt.

No deflationary contraction in connection to the Fed lowering rates.

The gov wants very negative r-g.

10/22/2024

$LU OUTLOOK & Q3 2024 REVIEW

2024 is a year of transition. -

The new loans underwritten are up QoQ by 11%. - The loan book has stopped shrinking.

- Consumption is seeing an uptick in China, with consumer loans growing in the division. SME still weak tough

- The company is transitioning to regular lending with a 100% fully booked model so take rate is higher

- Lower cost of funding is expected with the new lending license. - Credit quality has fully turned around.

- The new accounting for provisions is making them higher in year one, but this will reverse next year as the first-year vintage matures.

In fact, I missed the tangible book by 8%, so right now it trades at 25 cents on the dollar of tangible book.

The real question is: Where is the downside? WATCH 📺

HERE the report (Pay Per View)

👉https://graphfinancials.com/getthestory?url_handle=lufax_Q3_review

10/17/2024

Is there overivnestment in AI?

Overexcitement always creates overinsting and especially if monetary conditions are loose.

1720 Mississippi Company
- Monetization of Flandres war debts and Versailles Palace debts

1770-1780 France - Insurance and Canals bubble
- Monetization of American Independence war debts.

1825 Bubble burst of South American Scheme in the UK
- the BoE monetizes Exchequer Bills in 1823
and in 1826 Burst of Canals investments in New York

In 1880s too much capacity in railroads panic of 1893 in the US.

1920s and 1930s we had Radio bubble.

In the 1960s Nifty Fifty Companies every company wanted to put the word "Computer" in their name.

In 2000 (.com) TTM blow up of Corning MCI Worldcom,
Bubble pop on CISCO (Telecom)
and Media (Vivendi - Messier)

Today AI,
and also to a large extent Crypto garbage.
So do we have over-investment in AI...

I mean, I would be TOTALLY surprised if we DID NOT HAVE overinvestment.

Send a message to learn more

10/16/2024

In this post we review the Q3 results of Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo has been a reliable bellwether for the state of Banking and mechanically for the State of the Economy, since credit expansion means economic expansion.

We have a complete stagnation and no recession.

NO RECESSION

10/15/2024

LUFAX VALUATION UPDATE OCTOBER 2024

VALUATION IN DETAILS
You Can WATCH 📺 THE DOCUTALK EPISODE HERE
https://link.graphcall.com/lufax_Q2_review

Here is the Video part (embedded inside the GraphCall Link)
https://youtu.be/bR2xOlslKHc

Another 10-15% and it's in buying range again. It would be below 25 cents on the dollar of tangible book while flat on earnings and getting back to positive earnings in 2025. I have invested in liquidations with much lower discount to liquidation and negative accrual (cash burn until liquidation), here the discount is way larger, the earnings at ZERO but will print positive in 2025.

Page 2

1) Asset quality improving in SBO at Lufax

Small Business is still kind of weakish.
The small businesses took the brunt the one more year than everyone else Covid Lockdown

Business Conditions declined to 50.1
Though we will see that September data is a bit better.

2) Loan volume was CNY 45.2 billion, 15.5% decline.
The SBO is 51% of total total, de-emphasizing quantity over quality.
Declining fast YoY.
The Puhui Loans were declining 51% Yoy.
Total Loan balances were declining the last 3 quarters.

The decline in Puhui loan is offset by the increase in consumer lending growing more and more.
By the following percentages
Q4 Q1 Q2
-9.23% -11.62% -3.94%

3) The consumer loans are now around 49% of total and are growing at 23%
So, it is likely that we are flat in Q3 and we shall be growing slightly in Q4

4) C-M3 flow (credit quality metric) improved to 0.9% from 1.0%
Mainly on unsecured loans.
Consumer finance loans saw asset quality improvements with
NPL ratio decreasing to 1.4% from 1.6% in the first quarter.

5) higher take rate from 7% to 9.3% all in. Because they are moving to full 100%

Basically getting out of the origination/ farm out business totally.

Page 3
PAOBank HK Bank acquisition
Loan balance stood at 2.4 billion, increasing by 45% (it's small though)
Insurance, wealth management will be pushed to clients.

Acquired a Small loan license.

Dividend:
Ping An elected all for script.

Collaboration: Branding, Technology,
Planning to serve better SBO customers.

Page 4
We will review the spreadsheets together because on paper it is not easy without a spreadsheet
Large decrease in loan balances, offset only partially by higher take rate.

Larger fixed expenses to income ratio. We shall be out of that in 2 quarters.
Next quarter should be flat, and in Q1 2025 we shall be back to growth.

As we said take rate increased to 9.2% from 7% as they changed business model to guarantee
Model

Technology based platform went down 51% and that was the origination business,
This business is going away (origination)

Page 5
Net interest income accounted for a lot more at 45.4% (direct lending under 100% risk as opposed to
farmed out/ origination)

Capitalization is still very comfortable even after paying the special dividend.

Page 6
The loans balances are a bit below guidance

You Can WATCH 📺 THE EPISODE HERE

Financial Statements analysis

09/30/2024

How can you short the Fed? It's not that difficult.

NOT SHORTING THE COMMERCIAL BANKS.