Universal Rating System - URS

Universal Rating System - URS The Universal Rating System (URS) is a new sports rating system designed to assess the relative stre

The Universal Rating System (URS) was developed as the result of a collaborative research project funded by the Grand Chess Tour, the Kasparov Chess Foundation and the Chess Club and Scholastic Center of Saint Louis. The URS is the product of detailed research conducted over more than two years by some of the world’s leading sport statisticians. We have sought to create a rating system that can be

used by a wide variety of sports and gaming communities across the world. We decided to pilot the system within the chess community due to the wide availability of game results data in this sport. We intend to further optimize the system parameters during the pilot phase which is expected to last throughout the 2017 calendar year. In time, we intend to create a universal rating list that is referenced by all chess players in the world regardless of their level of play or the time controls used during their games. Future URS ratings will be based upon our superior mathematical models which will be further optimized using statistical techniques during the pilot phase. In time, the URS system is expected to be able to instantly update itself based on results submitted from anywhere in the world. We are providing access to the URS free of charge in the hope that it will encourage more chess players across the world to play in competitive over the board tournaments. It is our belief, that the resulting growth in the number of rated players worldwide will fundamentally change the way that chess is perceived by both potential sponsors and national sporting bodies.

After a pause of several months due to the global COVID-19 restrictions the URS™ has resumed monthly rating calculations...
11/19/2020

After a pause of several months due to the global COVID-19 restrictions the URS™ has resumed monthly rating calculations and new calculations have now been implemented for both October and November 2020. A modification has been made to the URS™ rating algorithm however to cater for the severe reduction in the number of monthly over-the-board games that have been played since March.

A player’s URS™ rating is best described as his performance rating calculated over the last several years and is based on each player's game results. Recent games are weighted more heavily than games played in earlier periods. When the URS™ needs to calculate a rating for a player who has very few recent results, it places a higher emphasis on their established strength from earlier years or (in the case of new players) on the typical playing strength of players of the same age.

If no adjustment was made, almost all players would appear to the URS™ algorithm as having very few recent results. This would cause a "regression to the mean" effect whereby players URS™ ratings would get shifted toward the typical playing strength of someone their age or towards their established playing strength from several years ago.

Before COVID-19 restrictions came into effect in March, approximately 350,000 rated games were typically played each month. A similar number of rated games have now been played since the global COVID-19 restrictions were implemented. We have therefore made a decision to treat all games played between 01-MAR-2020 and 30-SEP-2020 as if they were played within the single month of September 2020.

To close the resultant gap before September 2020, all games played prior to the COVID-19 shutdown will be shifted six months forward in time, for purposes of the future rating calculations. Consequently, all games played during February 2020 will be treated by the URS™ algorithm as if they were played during August 2020 while games played in January 2020 will be treated as if they were played in July 2020 and so on. This adjustment only applies to pre-COVID-19 game results and the dates of games played from October 2020 onwards will not be adjusted moving forward. As a result of the compression, it is also important to note that players will only be treated as inactive if they have not played a single rated game at any time control for the last eighteen months.

The rating lists for the periods from March 2020 until September 2020 were frozen and movements will again be seen for all months from October 2020 onwards. All lists have now been updated and can be viewed at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php .

The seven completed rounds of the Candidates tournament were included for the April URS™ rating list in what was otherwi...
04/02/2020

The seven completed rounds of the Candidates tournament were included for the April URS™ rating list in what was otherwise a very quiet month for the top players. GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and GM Ian Nepomniachtchi were the main beneficiaries following their strong showing in the rounds that were completed. They have risen to number 3 and number 7 respectively as a result. GM Ding Liren had a rare poor outing however and has dropped to 4th position leaving GM Magnus Carlsen and GM Hikaru Nakamura as the only two players rated above 2800 by the URS™.

The top 5 on the ladies list remained unchanged despite woman’s world champion GM Ju Wenjun dropping more than 40 places on the overall list. She remains in second place behind GM Hou Yifan who is now just outside the top 200 on the overall list. Alireza Firouzja continues to top the list of top junior players and there are now 4 juniors under the age of 20 who are ranked inside the top 100 by the URS™. The latest addition to this list is the young Russian star, GM Andrey Esipenko who entered the top 100 for the first time this month after recording another series of excellent results in local tournaments held in Russia.

This April list is likely to remain fairly stable for the next few months as most over the board tournaments have unfortunately been cancelled for the foreseeable future. It is our sincere hope that the global crisis will pass as soon as possible and that tournament chess around the world will resume again as soon as it is safe for this to happen. The ratings for April are published and can be found as usual at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

With many of the top players in the World currently focused on preparing for the Candidates, the month of February saw l...
03/10/2020

With many of the top players in the World currently focused on preparing for the Candidates, the month of February saw limited activity among the elite men players. Results from the 2020 Gibraltar Masters were rated this month however and did result in rating boosts for some emerging players that recorded good results.

The Gibraltar tournament was ultimately won by Russian Grandmaster David Paravyan who rose 25 places and is now ranked inside the top 150. His younger compatriot, GM Andrey Esipenko also benefited from a strong performance in Gibraltar which has seen him rise 23 places to sit at number 112.

GM Tan Zhongyi won the ladies section in Gibraltar and improved her global rank by 36 places to find herself ranked 9th on the ladies list. The Cairns Cup in St Louis was the other major event for the elite woman and was won by Indian GM Humpy Koneru. Humpy has been in good form recently and this latest victory in a distinguished career has seen her further consolidate her place among the top 5 on the ladies ranking list.

The ratings for March 2020 have been published and can be accessed as always at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

Victory at the 2020 Tata Steel Masters has seen GM Fabiano Caruana narrow the gap considerably at the top of the Februar...
02/02/2020

Victory at the 2020 Tata Steel Masters has seen GM Fabiano Caruana narrow the gap considerably at the top of the February URS rating list. The top 5 rated players now consist of Magnus Carlsen, Hikaru Nakamura, Ding Liren, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Fabiano Caruana and these 5 players have started to open a sizeable gap at the top of the standings. They are the only players to currently command a URS rating over 2790 while GM Wesley So from the USA is the only other player with a rating above 2780.

Amongst the top ladies, GM Ju Wenjun has kept her place as World number 2 after retaining her Woman’s World Champion title in a closely fought match against GM Aleksandra Goryachkina. The top performer among the emerging juniors at Tata Steel was GM Vincent Keymer from Germany and he has improved his ranking by over 100 places after a strong showing in the Challengers section in Wijk aan Zee.

The majority of the other participants at the Tata event performed close to their rating expectations and this has resulted in a fairly stable month at the top of the standings. The results from the Gibraltar Masters tournament did not make the final cut-off for inclusion in the February rating list and will be rated as part of the March list.

The updated standings as February 1, 2020 are now published and can be accessed as usual from http://universalrating.com/ratings.php.

GM Vladislav Artemiev and GM Alireza Firouzja both impressed at the World Rapid and Blitz Championship in Moscow and bot...
01/02/2020

GM Vladislav Artemiev and GM Alireza Firouzja both impressed at the World Rapid and Blitz Championship in Moscow and both have ended the year at or near their career high ratings. Artemiev ends the year at #10 while Firouzja has risen to #26 after securing the silver medal in the World Rapid behind world champion Magnus Carlsen.

GM Levon Aronian and GM Ian Nepomniachtchi also ended the year inside the top 10 with Ian benefiting from his victory at the final FIDE GP event in Israel.Russian GM Alexander Grischuk has also reached a career high of #7 and has virtually secured himself an invitation to the 2020 Grand Chess Tour as a result.

The year end ratings are now published and can be accessed at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

The top 3 rated players on the December URS™ rating list have all now qualified for the GCT Finals in London and are set...
12/02/2019

The top 3 rated players on the December URS™ rating list have all now qualified for the GCT Finals in London and are set to cash in on the USD 350,000 prize fund that is reserved for the top 4 players on the annual GCT circuit. GM Magnus Carlsen, GM Ding Liren and GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave will be joined in the showcase event by GM Levon Aronian who finds himself in 8th place on the December URS™ list.

Levon had a fairly wild month in November and recorded a victory at the Superbet Rapid & Blitz in Bucharest and a last place finish one week later at the Tata Steel Chess India Rapid and Blitz in Kolkata.

GM Alexander Grischuk was the other big winner in the month of November. His victory at the Hamburg Grand Prix has seen him consolidate his position inside the top 10 on the URS™ and he now finds himself in 7th place. He has timed his rise well with less than a month to go until the year end list is published and selections are made for the 2020 Grand Chess Tour.

GM Jan-Krzysztof Duda from Poland has also benefited from a strong showing in Hamburg and he has risen to a career high ranking of 20th as he continues to emerge as one of the leaders of the younger generation. GM Hikaru Nakamura also showed his resilience in India and recorded a strong performance which placed him 2nd behind world Champion Magnus Carlsen for the second time in a GCT rapid and blitz event this year. Hikaru has consequently swopped places with GM Fabiano Caruana after Caruana had a relatively poor outing in Bucharest at the start of November.

The December URS™ ratings are published and can be accessed at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

GM Teimour Radjabov has surged up the URS™ ranking list and finds himself at a career high ranking of number 10 followin...
11/09/2019

GM Teimour Radjabov has surged up the URS™ ranking list and finds himself at a career high ranking of number 10 following his victory in the 2019 FIDE World Cup. This win also saw him qualify alongside GM Ding Liren for the 2019 candidates tournament. GM Aleksander Grischuk and GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave also benefited from deep runs at the event and have further improved their rankings within the top 10.

The Fischer Random World Championship ended on November 2nd in Norway and the results from the semi-finals and finals which were played over the board will be incorporated within the URS™ rating list next month. The new Fischer Random World Champion, GM Wesley So will no doubt be the main beneficiary from this event.

The vast majority of the top players will be playing actively in November with two GCT tournaments scheduled to be held in Bucharest and Kolkata. The FIDE Grand Prix event in Hamburg will also be important for the 16 top players who will start in this field.

The November URS™ ratings are published and can be accessed at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

September was a relatively quiet month as the vast majority of the world elite were participating in the World Cup in Kh...
10/07/2019

September was a relatively quiet month as the vast majority of the world elite were participating in the World Cup in Khanty-Mansiysk. Since these results will only be taken into account next month most of the top players have largely maintained their current positions on the October rating list. The notable exception are the 8 participants of the Chess9LX tournament in St Louis who played 14 rateable games each at various time controls. These have been included in their URS™ rating calculations in line with the decision in 2018 to rate Chess960 results provided that these are played over the board and not online.

The player to benefit the most was GM Peter Svidler who returns to the top 20 after recording a comfortable match win against GM Leinier Dominguez. GM Hikaru Nakamura, Fabiano Caruana and Wesley So also recorded small rating gains from their respective victories against GM’s Aronian, Topalov and Kasparov.

On the women’s side, most of the top players were in action at the 1st FIDE Women's Grand Prix event in Skolkovo, Russia. GM Humpy Koneru won this event in impressive style and the result has seen her world ranking rise from #707 to #530 as a result. Humpy is now ranked 6th in the world on the October URS™ Woman’s rating list and will no doubt be eyeing a place in the Women’s candidates tournament after a long period of relative inactivity.

The final 3 months of the year are extremely busy for most
players and the results in this period are likely to be crucial for those hoping to qualify as full tour participants for the 2020 Grand Chess Tour.

The October URS™ ratings are now published and can be accessed at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

August was a very busy month and saw the results from the GCT events in Paris (Blitz), St Louis (Rapid & Blitz) and the ...
09/01/2019

August was a very busy month and saw the results from the GCT events in Paris (Blitz), St Louis (Rapid & Blitz) and the Sinquefield Cup all taken into account. This has caused a number of noteworthy movements at amongst the elite players with GM Ding Liren assuming the number 2 ranking position after his 2nd place finish in the St Louis Rapid & Blitz as well as his breakthrough victory at the 2019 Sinquefield Cup.

The month was also very positive for another elite Chinese player as GM Yu Yangi has risen to 9th overall after recording excellent 2nd place finishes in both the St Louis Rapid & Blitz and the Belt & Road Open tournament in China. Other top players to record positive movements were GM Levon Aronian, GM Viswanathan Anand and GM Sergey Karjakin while GM’s Grischuk, Giri, Mamedyarov and Artemiev all slipped down the list by a few important places this month.

The ladies and junior lists were less busy this month and still see GM Hou Yifan, GM Wei Yi and IM Zhansaya Abdumalik at the top of their respective lists.

The September URS™ ratings are now published and can be accessed at http://universalrating.com/ratings.

GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave has assumed the number 2 spot on the URS rating list for August on the back of his score of 6....
08/09/2019

GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave has assumed the number 2 spot on the URS rating list for August on the back of his score of 6.5/9 in the rapid portion of the Paris R&B tournament. He has hence relegated GM Hikaru Nakamura to third place for the first time since the first URS rating list were first published in March 2018. Hikaru has had a difficult 2-month period which has seen his rating impacted by his 12th place finish in Croatia as well as a first round exit in the Riga Grand Prix and a 7th place finish in Paris. The swop may be temporary as the blitz results from Paris are only due to be rated next month but the September rating list will also be impacted by the key results that are expected from the St Louis Rapid & Blitz and the Sinquefield Cup.

Two wildcards entrants in the Paris R&B event have also benefited from their strong performances and both GM Alexander Grischuk and GM Jan-Krzysztof Duda have seen their rankings advance as a result of their strong showings. GM Anish Giri on the other hand has fallen back slightly and now lies in 15th place overall.

A number of the top juniors continue to make strides forward and this month has seen GM Jeffery Xiong (USA) finally enter the top 100. Jeffery becomes the 4th player under the age of 20 to be ranked inside the top 100 and he currently stands behind GM Wei Yi (22nd), GM Alireza Firouzja (42nd) and GM Parham Maghsoodloo (52nd).

The August URS™ ratings are now published and can be accessed at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

GM Quang Liem Le was the stand-out performer in an otherwise relatively quiet June month and has improved his URS™ ranki...
07/02/2019

GM Quang Liem Le was the stand-out performer in an otherwise relatively quiet June month and has improved his URS™ ranking to number 26 on the back of his dual victories in the 2019 Asian Continental Open in China and the 2019 Summer Cup in St Louis, USA. GM Vladislav Artemiev also continued his steady progress and has finally broken into the top 10 for the first time after sharing first place with GM Dmitry Jakovenko in the Anatoly Karpov International Tournament held in Poykovskiy in Russia.

The other major event held in the month of June was the Norway Chess tournament in Stavanger but this event had limited impact on the ratings of the participants as most performed largely in line with expectations. GM Magnus Carlsen won the tournament on the strength of his excellent Armageddon results while GM Wesley So was the one player to make progress following this event. Wesley recorded an undefeated 5/9 in his classical games in Norway and this has seen him rise back to #6 on the latest list.

The July URS™ ratings are now published and can be accessed as usual at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

The month of June has seen changes at the top of the URS rating list following the inclusion of results from two major e...
06/01/2019

The month of June has seen changes at the top of the URS rating list following the inclusion of results from two major events. The Cote dÍvoire Rapid & Blitz and FIDE Grand Prix in Moscow were the most important events that have impacted the ratings of the top players this month.

World Champion Magnus Carlsen increased his lead at the top of the table even further after winning the Cote d’Ivoire Rapid and Blitz. GM Hikaru Nakamura and GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave both justified their seedings in Abidjan and both have consolidated their positions as number 2 and 3 respectively after they finished tied for second place behind Magnus in Abidjan.

Only slightly further down the list, GM Ian Nepomniachtchi has now recorded a career high URS™ ranking of number 6 after winning the Moscow Grand Prix. This was despite a relatively disappointing performance in Abidjan only the week before. GM Alexander Grischuk, the man he defeated in the final, has also returned to the top 10 while Polish GM Radoslaw Wojtaszek improved to number 26. Falling out of the top 10 is GM Sergey Karjakin who had a tough time in Abidjan while also suffering a first round defeat in Moscow. Sergei is now ranked at number 12 which is the lowest he has been rated since the inception of the URS™ ratings lists in January 2018.

The June ratings are now published and can be accessed as usual at http://universalrating.com/ratings.php

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